CPI, NFP, and GDP surprise alerts

The biggest market-moving events of any month are economic data releases — CPI, non-farm payrolls, GDP, retail sales. The releases that matter aren't the in-line ones — they're the surprises, where the actual number deviates meaningfully from consensus. Tickerbot tracks the data and surfaces only the surprises.

Why surprise magnitude is the signal

Markets price in the consensus expectation before every economic data release. When the actual print matches the expectation, prices barely move — the news was already in. When the print misses or beats by a meaningful margin, the repricing can be sharp and immediate. The surprise is the signal.

A CPI release that comes in at the consensus is a non-event. A CPI release that comes in 30 basis points hot is a meaningful market mover. The magnitude matters.

What Tickerbot tracks

Tickerbot ingests the major US economic data releases on their published schedules: CPI, core CPI, PCE, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, GDP, retail sales, durable goods, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, JOLTS. Each release is compared against the consensus estimate at the time of publication.

Stacking with market reaction

The most useful version of these alerts pairs the data surprise with a market reaction — so you only see the cases where both the data and the market action confirm the move.

Variants worth setting up

• Core CPI surprises specifically (more sensitive to underlying inflation than headline)
• NFP plus wage growth combined deviation (Fed-relevant signal)
• GDP revisions deviating from prior estimates
• ISM Manufacturing crossing the 50 expansion/contraction line
• Unemployment rate revising up unexpectedly