Yield curve inversion alerts

The 2-year and 10-year treasury yield spread is the most-watched indicator in macro. It inverts ahead of most US recessions, then steepens again on the way out. Tickerbot tracks the spread continuously and alerts on the inflection points.

What the curve is and why it matters

The yield curve is the relationship between short-term and long-term treasury yields. Normally, longer-dated treasuries pay more than shorter ones — investors want compensation for tying up money for longer. When that relationship inverts (the 2-year pays more than the 10-year), it's historically a leading signal of recession. The curve has inverted before every US recession in the last 50 years, with a lag of roughly 12-18 months.

The other meaningful inflection is the steepening: when an inverted curve returns to normal, often during or just after a recession. Both transitions matter for asset allocation.

How Tickerbot tracks it

Tickerbot pulls live data on the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury yields. The 2/10 spread is computed continuously and tracked as a flag. Alerts fire on the edge transition — the moment the spread crosses zero in either direction.

Combining with equity conditions

The yield curve in isolation is interesting. Paired with equity conditions, it's actionable. A curve inversion combined with weakness in financials, for example, is a regime signal that traders historically use to reduce risk.

Variants worth setting up

• 3-month / 10-year inversion (the Fed's preferred recession signal)
• Steepening alerts — the curve returning to normal
• 10-year yield crossing specific thresholds (4%, 4.5%, 5%)
• Real yields (10Y minus inflation expectation) above 2%
• Curve inversion paired with falling earnings revisions