Risk-on/risk-off rotation alerts
Risk-on: tech and discretionary lead. Risk-off: utilities and staples lead. When defensive sectors start outperforming cyclicals, it's often an early warning sign for the broader market. Automate risk-on/risk-off detection.
What is risk-on/risk-off?
Risk-on means investors are buying cyclical, high-beta sectors: technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY), financials (XLF). These sectors lead during bull markets and economic expansion.
Risk-off means investors are rotating into defensive sectors: utilities (XLU), consumer staples (XLP), healthcare (XLV). The rotation often happens before major market turns.
Combining sector rotation with market breadth
Risk-off is more concerning when it happens while the market is near highs. It signals that smart money is rotating defensively even as the index grinds higher. This divergence often precedes corrections.
Divergence warning example
Stack defensive sector outperformance with market proximity to highs. When utilities and staples are leading while SPY is within 2% of its 52-week high, it's a classic divergence signal worth watching.
Common variations you can build
- XLK and XLY both outperforming SPY by 3%+ (risk-on)
- XLV (healthcare) outperforming XLK (tech) for 5 consecutive days
- VIX above 20 and defensives leading (fear + rotation)
- SPY down but XLU up (classic risk-off divergence)
Related alerts
Other sector and market rotation alerts